The Future of the Honduran Education System

This report models the impact of investments in education, with a goal of improving educational attainment (quantity) as well as test scores (quality), in Honduras on economic activity, social violence, and migration by conducting quantitative modeling using International Futures. We created a scenario (the Current Path) that estimated the future trajectory of education in Honduras based on a continuation of domestic investment and foreign aid allocation. Educational attainment in Honduras has improved and is on par with Central America, though primary and secondary test scores are very low. Honduras is not on track to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (4.1). We estimated that the future trajectory of education in Honduras have broad and long-term positive impacts (through 2060) on increasing economic activity (increasing GDP by nearly $330 billion), reducing social violence (by 5 percent), and reducing emigration (by 11 percent). Additionally, we created alternative scenarios that model a five-year push to increase education investment as well as the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals related to education. In both scenarios investments in education lead to improved economic opportunities, reduced social violence, and lowered pressure to emigrate. However, the impact of these investments is long-term, and we conclude that the efficacy of investments in education should be assessed over multiple decades.